Fifty B M G
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 74
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-19 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 08/02/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 27/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 17/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 14/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |