3
Forest Flash
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 77
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength16%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 29/09/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 14/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |