1
Harper City
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 79
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength88%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 26/09/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 17/10/2025 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 07/11/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.23 |
| 21/11/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 31/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 06/09/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |