Heavylikeachevy
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 71
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
78%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 04/08/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 12/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 24/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 31/05/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 17% | -0.66 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 18/08/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |