IvyArcIvyArc
5

Very Debonaire

7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 76

Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

17%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength70%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +1.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Woodbine 05/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 76 · 6f 123 · below its mark05/09/2025 · OR 76 par5/09C8OR 76C8 @ Woodbine 03/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 78 · 7f 123 · below its mark03/10/2025 · OR 78 parC8 @ Woodbine 23/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 74 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark23/10/2025 · OR 74 par23/10C8OR 74C8 @ Woodbine 20/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 77 · 5f110y Fas 123 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 77 parC8 @ Mahoning Valley 24/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 74 · 5f110y Gd 124 · below its mark24/03/2026 · OR 74 par24/03C8OR 74C8 @ Mountaineer 13/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 73 · 6f Fas 120 · below its mark13/04/2026 · OR 73 parC5 @ Fort Erie 21/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 62 · 5f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 62 par21/06C5OR 62C7 @ Fort Erie 17/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 65 · 5f Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 65 parC5 @ Fort Erie 07/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 71 · 1m110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 71 par7/09C5OR 71projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Fort Erie?7th3rd+3
2026-08-17Fort Erie?1st0th+1
2026-06-21Fort Erie?1st-2th+3
2026-04-13Mountaineer?4th4th0
2026-03-24Mahoning Valley?9th9th0
2025-11-20Woodbine?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0920/1121/067/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/09/20255th16/116%33%+0.18
03/10/20255th12/137%69%+0.32
23/10/20256th5/174%0%-0.74
20/11/20253rd10/147%67%+0.19
24/03/20269th10/147%0%-0.47
13/04/20264th16/116%57%+0.41
21/06/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
17/08/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
07/09/20267th25/10%33%+0.33