5
Magical Champagne
6yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 63
Fort Erie · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength41%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 16/09/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 29/09/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 14/10/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 20/10/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 27/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 18/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |