2
Silent Mort
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 59
Fort Erie · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 02/08/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 23/11/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 03/05/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |