7
Firecracker Fiona
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 71
Fort Erie · Race 5 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength81%
Delivery trend +7.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 06/09/2025 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |
| 05/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 15/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 29/11/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 10/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |