4
Leziate
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 70
Fort Erie · Race 5 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-17 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-07-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 12/06/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 03/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |