3
Midnite Sadie
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 67
Fort Erie · Race 5 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-07-19 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-25 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-05-09 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2025-12-12 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength23%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 29/05/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 19/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 30/08/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |