5
Noble Bodan
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 52
Fort Erie · Race 5 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
52%
Place Prob
43%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-06 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 11th | −4 |
| 2025-08-21 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 5-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength0%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 21/08/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 06/09/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 22/09/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |