1
Orient Beach
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 75
Fort Erie · Race 5 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-18 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-02-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-02-05 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength45%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 14/12/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 04/01/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 27/02/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |