2
Sultry Sophie
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 57
Fort Erie · Race 5 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-04-25 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength22%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 14/11/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 11/12/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 05/07/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |