3
Alta Calibre
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 66
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
90%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-08-17 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength74%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 11/12/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 28/12/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 01/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 20/02/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 27/03/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 90% | +0.27 |