Crumlin Trouble
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 84
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 27/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 14/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 86% | -0.07 |