5
Gimmel
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 69
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength57%
Delivery trend +4.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 08/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 30/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 13/11/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 15/04/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 26/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |