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2

Mitch

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 91

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

8/15

Win Prob

59%

Place Prob

51%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼3
Strength75%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.2 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 25/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 6f Slo 120 · HIGHER CLASS25/06C6C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 30/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 103 · 1m Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2025 · OR 103 par30/07C5OR 103C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 28/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 102 · 1m Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/08/2025 · OR 102 par28/08C5OR 102C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 18/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 98 · 1m110y Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/09/2025 · OR 98 par18/09C5OR 98C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 09/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 95 · 1m Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/10/2025 · OR 95 par9/10C5OR 95C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 24/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 91 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/06/2026 · OR 91 par24/06C5OR 91C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 27/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 94 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 94 par27/07C5OR 94projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-27Horseshoe Indianapolis?7th4th+3
2026-06-24Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd0th+3
2025-10-09Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd0th+3
2025-09-18Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th1st+3
2025-08-28Horseshoe Indianapolis?5th2nd+3
2025-07-30Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st-2th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0618/0927/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength25%

Delivery trend -10.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/06/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
30/07/20251st1/297%100%+0.03
28/08/20255th4/797%33%-0.64
18/09/20254th5/174%57%-0.17
09/10/20253rd7/491%60%-0.31
24/06/20263rd9/488%60%-0.28
27/07/20267th2/189%14%-0.75