Toy'stroubledhero
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 77
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-04-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 27/10/2025 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 12/11/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 10% | -0.16 |
| 22/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 06/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 26/08/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |