Delcap Alice
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 65
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
4/5
Win Prob
54%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-17 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-06-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 06/10/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 12/11/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 26/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 16/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 10/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |