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4

Miss Candy Pop

3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 61

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

40%

Place Prob

39%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength65%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 09/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 32 · 5f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/09/2025 · OR 32 par9/09C6OR 32C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 08/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 41 · 5f110y Slo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 41 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 29/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 46 · 5f110y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/10/2025 · OR 46 par29/10C6OR 46C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 10/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 48 · 5f110y Slo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/11/2025 · OR 48 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 07/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 54 · 5f110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 54 par7/04C6OR 54C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 12/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 57 · 6f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 57 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 26/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 53 · 5f110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 53 par26/05C6OR 53C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 10/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 56 · 1m Slo 117 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 56 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 09/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 56 · 6f 118 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 56 par9/09C8OR 56projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Horseshoe Indianapolis?7th7th0
2026-06-10Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st2nd−1
2026-05-26Horseshoe Indianapolis?5th3rd+2
2026-05-12Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd1st+2
2026-04-07Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th4th+2
2025-11-10Horseshoe Indianapolis?5th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0910/1126/059/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength97%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/09/20254th20/10%0%0.00
08/10/20252nd20/10%80%+0.80
29/10/20253rd2/189%67%-0.23
10/11/20255th16/116%33%+0.18
07/04/20266th20/10%50%+0.50
12/05/20263rd20/10%80%+0.80
26/05/20265th10/147%43%-0.05
10/06/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
09/09/20267th12/137%25%-0.12