Staymistyforme

3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 59

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength56%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.1

Today:

Class gap: +0.4

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-22	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-07-30	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-07-08	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-06-03	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2026-05-05	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8
2026-04-15	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength77%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
30/10/2025	5th	10/1	47%	50%	+0.03
15/04/2026	5th	16/1	16%	56%	+0.40
05/05/2026	3rd	16/1	16%	71%	+0.56
03/06/2026	5th	12/1	37%	56%	+0.19
08/07/2026	2nd	10/3	82%	86%	+0.03
30/07/2026	1st	7/4	91%	100%	+0.09
22/08/2026	5th	12/1	37%	50%	+0.13