Lunaticus

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 73

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength69%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.6

Today:

Class gap: +1.9

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-07	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-06-15	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0
2026-05-06	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2026-02-20	Turfway Park	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength55%

Delivery trend -2.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/02/2026	8th	20/1	0%	30%	+0.30
06/05/2026	5th	16/1	16%	20%	+0.04
15/06/2026	4th	13/2	66%	63%	-0.03
07/07/2026	7th	16/1	16%	40%	+0.24