5
Run David Run
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 65
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength13%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 31/01/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 16/02/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 19/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 12/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 25/05/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 18/06/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 01/09/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |