5
Lil Gitana
2yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 44
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
79%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |