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3

Polka Dot Jersey

2yo Filly · 8-5 · OR 78

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Colonial Downs 16/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 11916/07C6C6 @ Colonial Downs 06/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 78 · 5f110y Fm 119 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 78 par6/08C6OR 78C6 @ Colonial Downs 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 78 · 5f110y Fm 119 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 78 par22/08C6OR 78projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Colonial Downs?4th4th0
2026-08-06Colonial Downs?3rd3rd0
2026-07-16Colonial Downs?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/076/0822/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength21%

Delivery trend -36.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/07/20265th25/10%60%+0.60
06/08/20263rd10/147%80%+0.33
22/08/20264th9/276%63%-0.14