8
Zarzuela
2yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 56
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -15.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 30/08/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |