4
Go Bali Go
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 91
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength70%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 02/10/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 08/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 21/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 06/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 01/09/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |