10
On Palm Sunday
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 87
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-31 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength80%
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 73% | +0.15 |
| 22/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 07/02/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 11/03/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 29% | -0.57 |
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 05/08/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 27% | -0.10 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 11/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |