4
Dare To Fly
3yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 72
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Allowance · 1f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -12.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/07/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 38% | -0.51 |
| 01/09/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |