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6

Churchill Bond

2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 87

Listowel · SIS Irish EBF Maiden · 7f 15y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

33%

Place Prob

31%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

€300,000 breeze-up acquisition who matched previous best when keeping on third of 12 in a Galway maiden (7f, soft) 2 weeks ago. Very shrewd stable now reach for a first-time visor and another fancied to be on the premises.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Leopardstown 23/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 7f Goo 12923/07C8C8 @ Naas 23/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR - · 7f Goo 12923/08C8C8 @ Galway 08/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 7f Sft 1298/09C8projClass-projected finish: 1st of 2
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Galway?3rd3rd0
2026-08-23Naas?5th5th0
2026-07-23Leopardstown?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0723/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +14.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/07/20267th10/382%45%-0.37
23/08/20265th6/168%73%+0.05
08/09/20263rd15/890%82%-0.08