7
Distillate
6yo Mare · 9-6 · OR 49
Listowel · Rose Hotel Handicap (0-60) · 7f 15y
#12
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 10.4 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Laytown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Navan | BHA53 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Bellewstown | BHA53 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-30 | Navan | BHA56 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Dundalk | BHA57 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Dundalk | BHA58 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 150% of fieldRange 10-15 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 15th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 72% | +0.35 |
| 05/11/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 77% | +0.40 |
| 19/11/2025 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 38% | -0.33 |
| 13/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 92% | +0.23 |
| 06/03/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 20/03/2026 | 14th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |
| 30/03/2026 | 14th | 25/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 02/09/2026 | 14th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.02 |
| 10/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 78% | +0.36 |