16
Survivor's Code
3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 47
Listowel · Rose Hotel Handicap (0-60) · 7f 15y
#9
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: BHA50
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Gowran Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Roscommon | BHA52 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ballinrobe | BHA53 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Gowran Park | BHA55 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Gowran Park | BHA50 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Navan | BHA51 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1521% of fieldRange 8-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength21%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 20/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 27/10/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.17 |
| 30/03/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 08/04/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 22/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 45% | -0.02 |
| 08/05/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 18/05/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 01/09/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |