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11

Tamazu

7yo Colt · 9-1 · OR 44

Listowel · Rose Hotel Handicap (0-60) · 7f 15y

#13

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

On a long losing sequence but returned from 12 months off with a good fifth of 14 in handicap at Roscommon (7f, good to soft) 22 days ago, not enjoying a smooth passage last 1f. Can't be dismissed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength8%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 6.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA72 @ Dundalk 29/11/2023 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 72 · 7f Std 140 · below its mark29/11/2023 · OR 72 par29/1172OR 72BHA70 @ Dundalk 08/12/2023 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 70 · 5f Std 131 · below its mark08/12/2023 · OR 70 parBHA68 @ Down Royal 21/06/2024 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 68 · 5f Goo 133 · below its mark21/06/2024 · OR 68 par21/0668OR 68BHA67 @ Leopardstown 08/08/2024 · Pos 15th of 17 · OR 67 · 7f42y Goo 137 · below its mark08/08/2024 · OR 67 parBHA63 @ Laytown 16/09/2024 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 63 · 7f Std 168 · below its mark16/09/2024 · OR 63 par16/0963OR 63BHA60 @ Dundalk 04/10/2024 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 60 · 5f Std 134 · below its mark04/10/2024 · OR 60 parBHA58 @ Dundalk 01/11/2024 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 58 · 5f Std 136 · below its mark01/11/2024 · OR 58 par1/1158OR 58BHA50 @ Laytown 04/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 50 · 6f Std 144 · beat its mark04/09/2025 · OR 50 parBHA46 @ Roscommon 31/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 46 · 7f94y Yie 128 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 46 par31/0846OR 46projClass-projected finish: 12th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31RoscommonBHA465th5th0
2025-09-04LaytownBHA507th7th0
2024-11-01DundalkBHA5813th13th0
2024-10-04DundalkBHA605th5th0
2024-09-16LaytownBHA634th4th0
2024-08-08LeopardstownBHA6715th15th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/118/081/1131/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1543% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength55%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/11/202313th66/10%8%+0.08
08/12/20234th25/10%67%+0.67
21/06/202411th16/116%9%-0.07
08/08/202415th50/10%13%+0.13
16/09/20244th22/10%40%+0.40
04/10/20245th150/10%0%0.00
01/11/202413th33/10%8%+0.08
04/09/20257th25/10%33%+0.33
31/08/20265th50/10%69%+0.69