13
Tariff
3yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 44
Listowel · Rose Hotel Handicap (0-60) · 7f 15y
#11
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 8.9)
Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Cork | BHA40 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Navan | BHA45 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Gowran Park | BHA48 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Bellewstown | BHA50 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-12-17 | Dundalk | BHA55 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-05 | Dundalk | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1550% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength68%
Delivery trend +7.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 13th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/11/2025 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 05/12/2025 | 10th | 200/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 17/12/2025 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 03/07/2026 | 13th | 80/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 25/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 02/09/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 47% | +0.20 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |