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9

Apache Outlaw

6yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 68

Listowel · WTW Willis Towers Watson Handicap · 7f 15y

#4

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Came as close to ending his lengthy losing run as he has in a long time when close third in 7f Galway handicap in August. Backed that up with a respectable second of 9 at Chester (7.6f, good to soft) 10 days ago. Considered for McGuinness.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA92 @ Dundalk 20/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 92 · 6f Std 133 · below its mark20/02/2026 · OR 92 par20/0292OR 923 @ Lingfield 03/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 90 · 6f1y Std 135 · below its mark03/04/2026 · OR 90 parBHA73 @ Listowel 31/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 73 · 6f60y Goo 133 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 73 par31/0573OR 73BHA70 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 70 · 7f45y Goo 140 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 70 parBHA70 @ Curragh 26/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR 70 · 7f Gd 120 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 70 par26/0670OR 70BHA71 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 71 · 6f150y Gd 133 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 71 parBHA71 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 71 · 5f Goo 131 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 71 par18/0771OR 71BHA70 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 70 · 7f Yie 140 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 70 par4 @ Chester 12/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 68 · 7f127y Sft 123 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 68 par12/094OR 68projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Chester42nd2nd0
2026-08-01GalwayBHA703rd3rd0
2026-07-18CurraghBHA7111th11th0
2026-07-11LimerickBHA715th5th0
2026-06-26CurraghBHA703rd3rd0
2026-06-18LeopardstownBHA704th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0218/0618/0712/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength98%

Delivery trend +4.6% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/02/20268th9/276%22%-0.54
03/04/202611th14/126%9%-0.17
31/05/20266th7/163%58%-0.05
18/06/20264th11/142%79%+0.36
26/06/20263rd14/126%88%+0.61
11/07/20265th5/174%60%-0.14
18/07/202611th13/266%41%-0.25
01/08/20263rd4/179%83%+0.04
12/09/20262nd13/266%88%+0.22