6
Dragon Of Malta
9yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 73
Listowel · WTW Willis Towers Watson Handicap · 7f 15y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Listowel | BHA73 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Roscommon | BHA75 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA76 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Limerick | BHA77 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Listowel | BHA80 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Cork | BHA82 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 01/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 08/11/2025 | 15th | 22/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 19/05/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/05/2026 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 21/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |