5

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8yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 75

Listowel · WTW Willis Towers Watson Handicap · 7f 15y

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Plenty of creditable efforts in defeats but latest Cork effort wasn't one of them. On the back of that he has a first-time visor added to his regular tongue tie.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength20%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA84 @ Naas 27/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 84 · 5f205y Gd 124 · below its mark27/04/2026 · OR 84 par27/0484OR 84BHA83 @ Curragh 23/05/2026 · Pos 15th of 22 · OR 83 · 6f Gd 124 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 83 parBHA81 @ Cork 14/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 81 · 7f Gd 119 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 81 par14/0681OR 81BHA78 @ Curragh 27/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 78 · 6f GF 129 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 78 parBHA78 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 20 · OR 78 · 6f63y Goo 119 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 78 par18/0778OR 78BHA77 @ Galway 28/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 77 · 7f Yie 137 · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 77 parBHA81 @ Curragh 09/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 81 · 6f GF 141 · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 81 par9/0881OR 81BHA81 @ Curragh 22/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 81 · 6f Goo 122 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 81 parBHA77 @ Cork 09/09/2026 · Pos 14th of 22 · OR 77 · 6f Goo 139 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 77 par9/0977OR 77projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09CorkBHA7714th14th0
2026-08-22CurraghBHA816th6th0
2026-08-09CurraghBHA815th5th0
2026-07-28GalwayBHA772nd2nd0
2026-07-18CurraghBHA786th6th0
2026-06-27CurraghBHA782nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0427/069/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength26%

Delivery trend -7.1% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/04/20263rd12/137%82%+0.45
23/05/202615th14/126%33%+0.07
14/06/202612th20/10%21%+0.21
27/06/20262nd10/147%92%+0.45
18/07/20266th20/10%74%+0.74
28/07/20262nd15/261%93%+0.32
09/08/20265th10/382%69%-0.13
22/08/20266th6/168%44%-0.24
09/09/202614th17/255%38%-0.17