13
Green Kite
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 62
Listowel · WTW Willis Towers Watson Handicap · 7f 15y
#11
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class: BHA60
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Listowel | BHA62 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Cork | BHA60 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Fairyhouse | BHA64 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Leopardstown | BHA61 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Gowran Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Limerick | BHA66 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
Delivery trend -6.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 9th | 500/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 06/10/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 20/10/2025 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 25/04/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 20/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 08/07/2026 | 11th | 11/1 | 42% | 29% | -0.14 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 21/09/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |