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12

La La Lucrative

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 63

Listowel · WTW Willis Towers Watson Handicap · 7f 15y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

69%

Place Prob

50%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back to his best this season, winning over C&D and at Roscommon. Another good run when third of 18 at Fairyhouse on Monday.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 6.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA55 @ Curragh 04/10/2025 · Pos 18th of 18 · OR 55 · 1m Sft 125 · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 55 par4/1055OR 55BHA53 @ Dundalk 17/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 53 · 7f Std 135 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 53 parBHA51 @ Dundalk 21/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 51 · 6f Std 134 · beat its mark21/11/2025 · OR 51 par21/1151OR 51BHA48 @ Dundalk 05/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 48 · 1m Std 130 · beat its mark05/12/2025 · OR 48 parBHA45 @ Listowel 31/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 45 · 7f Goo 127 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 45 par31/0545OR 45BHA58 @ Fairyhouse 05/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 58 · 6f Goo 142 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 58 parBHA57 @ Roscommon 30/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 57 · 7f94y Goo 139 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 57 par30/0657OR 57BHA65 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 65 · 7f Yie 135 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 65 parBHA63 @ Fairyhouse 21/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 63 · 7f Goo 134 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 63 par21/0963OR 63projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21FairyhouseBHA633rd3rd0
2026-08-01GalwayBHA654th4th0
2026-06-30RoscommonBHA571st1st0
2026-06-05FairyhouseBHA588th8th0
2026-05-31ListowelBHA451st1st0
2025-12-05DundalkBHA487th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/105/1230/0621/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/202518th28/10%0%0.00
17/10/20258th7/163%30%-0.33
21/11/20259th25/10%38%+0.38
05/12/20257th18/15%54%+0.49
31/05/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
05/06/20268th6/168%56%-0.12
30/06/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
01/08/20264th22/10%75%+0.75
21/09/20263rd15/261%88%+0.28