8
Mercurial
7yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 69
Listowel · WTW Willis Towers Watson Handicap · 7f 15y
#7
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Roscommon | BHA70 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Roscommon | BHA70 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Listowel | BHA70 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Roscommon | BHA72 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Curragh | BHA73 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Curragh | BHA70 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength81%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/2025 | 12th | 18/1 | 5% | 8% | +0.03 |
| 27/06/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 23/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 77% | +0.40 |
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 94% | +0.57 |
| 02/11/2025 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 58% | -0.03 |
| 18/05/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 79% | +0.23 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 92% | +0.34 |
| 18/08/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 46% | +0.20 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 82% | +0.40 |