4
Nakamura
3yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 79
Listowel · WTW Willis Towers Watson Handicap · 7f 15y
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: BHA70
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Curragh | BHA82 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Fairyhouse | BHA81 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | BHA84 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Naas | BHA86 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Cork | BHA87 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Naas | BHA88 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength9%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 28/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 30/09/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 11/10/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 77% | +0.19 |
| 04/04/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 23/05/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 27/06/2026 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 15% | -0.32 |