3
Tolebi
4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 77
Listowel · WTW Willis Towers Watson Handicap · 7f 15y
#9
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Laytown | BHA80 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Naas | BHA87 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | BHA87 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Fairyhouse | BHA90 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | BHA91 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Fairyhouse | BHA92 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength53%
Delivery trend +6.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 11th | 7/1 | 63% | 9% | -0.54 |
| 27/10/2025 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/03/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 26/06/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 30/07/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 03/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 10/09/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |