IvyArcIvyArc
4

Bay Colony

4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 83

Listowel · Edmund & Josie Whelan Memorial Listowel Stakes (Listed) · 1m

#10

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful filly. 22/1, 12¼ lengths ninth of 10 to Moody in listed race at Gowran (1¾m, good to soft) in May. Significantly down in trip on first outing since. Difficult ask.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲4
Strength28%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.5 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.6
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 28/06/2024 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR - · 7f Goo 12828/06C81 @ Tipperary 09/08/2024 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 7f100y Goo 1261 @ Curragh 31/08/2024 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS31/081C8 @ Naas 23/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 89 · 1m Sft 129 · below its mark23/03/2025 · OR 89 parC8 @ Limerick 25/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 89 · 1m3f190y Sft 129 · beat its mark25/04/2025 · OR 89 par25/04C8OR 891 @ Leopardstown 05/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 88 · 1m4f Goo 126 · beat its mark05/06/2025 · OR 88 par1 @ Curragh 19/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 85 · 1m4f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/07/2025 · OR 85 par19/071OR 85BHA85 @ Curragh 03/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 85 · 1m2f Sft 125 · below its mark03/04/2026 · OR 85 par1 @ Gowran Park 05/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 85 · 1m6f Goo 128 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 85 par5/051OR 85projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-05Gowran Park19th9th0
2026-04-03CurraghBHA854th13th−8
2025-07-19Curragh17th6th+1
2025-06-05Leopardstown17th7th0
2025-04-25Limerick?1st10th−7
2025-03-23Naas?3rd12th−7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0623/0319/075/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength34%

Delivery trend +2.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/06/202410th11/142%36%-0.06
09/08/20244th33/10%40%+0.40
31/08/20245th50/10%43%+0.43
23/03/20253rd9/276%85%+0.08
25/04/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
05/06/20257th66/10%25%+0.25
19/07/20257th125/10%0%0.00
03/04/20264th22/10%82%+0.82
05/05/20269th22/10%11%+0.11