5
Chica Guerrera
4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 93
Listowel · Edmund & Josie Whelan Memorial Listowel Stakes (Listed) · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲8
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 13.7 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: BHA53
Recent avg: C8.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -7.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Leopardstown | BHA91 | 2nd | 12th | −8 |
| 2026-08-05 | Sligo | BHA93 | 2nd | 12th | −9 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA93 | 14th | 24th | −9 |
| 2026-06-20 | Down Royal | BHA79 | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gowran Park | BHA79 | 3rd | 12th | −7 |
| 2026-05-15 | Leopardstown | BHA80 | 4th | 13th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength87%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 03/04/2026 | 15th | 12/1 | 37% | 18% | -0.19 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 89% | +0.23 |
| 15/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 70% | -0.04 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 31/07/2026 | 14th | 20/1 | 0% | 24% | +0.24 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 94% | +0.89 |