2
Cristal Clere
8yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 98
Listowel · Edmund & Josie Whelan Memorial Listowel Stakes (Listed) · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲5
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 9.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -4.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Limerick | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | 1 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-09-23 | Listowel | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Listowel | BHA98 | 5th | 16th | −9 |
| 2025-07-21 | Ballinrobe | BHA98 | 2nd | 13th | −9 |
| 2025-06-15 | Gowran Park | BHA101 | 2nd | 13th | −9 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength29%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2024 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 24/04/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 05/06/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 15/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 21/07/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 22/09/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 23/09/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 23/05/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |