6
Iowa City
4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 96
Listowel · Edmund & Josie Whelan Memorial Listowel Stakes (Listed) · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
67%
Place Prob
44%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲4
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 10.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -4.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | BHA97 | 16th | 27th | −9 |
| 2026-03-22 | Naas | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Cork | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-09 | Galway | BHA88 | 1st | 11th | −8 |
| 2025-05-13 | Killarney | BHA93 | 3rd | 13th | −9 |
| 2024-10-30 | Marseille-borely | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2024 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 04/10/2024 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 17/10/2024 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 30/10/2024 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 13/05/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 09/09/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 30/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 22/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 23/05/2026 | 16th | 10/1 | 47% | 21% | -0.26 |