Iron Fist
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 92
Listowel · Edmund & Josie Whelan Memorial Listowel Stakes (Listed) · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 17.5 /10 (raw 6.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | BHA93 | 11th | 21th | −9 |
| 2026-08-15 | Dundalk | BHA95 | 5th | 15th | −9 |
| 2026-07-11 | York | 2 | 22th | 23th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | BHA92 | 3rd | 13th | −8 |
| 2026-04-24 | Cork | BHA90 | 2nd | 12th | −8 |
| 2026-04-03 | Curragh | BHA91 | 10th | 20th | −8 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 30/07/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 03/04/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 55% | +0.13 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 93% | +0.22 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 89% | +0.47 |
| 11/07/2026 | 22nd | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 69% | +0.06 |
| 13/09/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 52% | +0.52 |