7
La Tulipe Noire
6yo Mare · 9-4 · OR 58
Listowel · Edmund & Josie Whelan Memorial Listowel Stakes (Listed) · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
200/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲6
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 14.6 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: BHA46
Recent avg: C6.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -6.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Wexford | BHA84 | −8 | ||
| 2026-05-08 | Ballinrobe | BHA63 | 7th | 14th | −6 |
| 2026-05-04 | Curragh | BHA63 | 8th | 15th | −6 |
| 2026-04-25 | Limerick | BHA65 | 5th | 12th | −6 |
| 2026-04-08 | Gowran Park | BHA66 | 9th | 16th | −6 |
| 2026-03-15 | Curragh | BHA67 | 10th | 17th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 8-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 27/10/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 87% | +0.71 |
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.37 |
| 23/11/2025 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 30% | -0.12 |
| 15/03/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 08/04/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 47% | +0.31 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 69% | +0.43 |
| 04/05/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 08/05/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |