Meriden
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 104
Listowel · Edmund & Josie Whelan Memorial Listowel Stakes (Listed) · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Leopardstown | 1 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Curragh | 1 | 6th | 6th | +0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Killarney | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Curragh | BHA86 | 1st | 10th | −8 |
| 2026-06-11 | Leopardstown | BHA78 | 1st | 9th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 88% | -0.02 |
| 29/08/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 62% | -0.10 |
| 12/09/2026 | 7th | 125/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |