8
Qualixia
5yo Mare · 9-4 · OR 94
Listowel · Edmund & Josie Whelan Memorial Listowel Stakes (Listed) · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Fontainebleau | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-07 | Vichy | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2025-07-02 | Clairefontaine | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2025-06-08 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-05-01 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength67%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/01/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 16/03/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 11/04/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 55% | +0.02 |
| 01/05/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 08/06/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 87% | +0.24 |
| 02/07/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 07/08/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 19/10/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |
| 22/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |